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Sluggish Growth and Inflation Outlook for 1985 86
The report projects real GNP growth easing from 3.0 percent in Q3 to 2.2 percent in Q4 and 1.7 percent by Q1 next year, then 1.5 percent by Q3 1986 with a pickup to about 2.5 percent by late 1986. Interest rates are seen drifting down slowly through 1986 as the Fed holds, deficits weigh on rates, and mortgage yields fall. Inflation remains limited but may accelerate modestly in late 1986 as activity picks up. consumer prices rise around 2.8 percent in Q4 this year and 3.5 percent by Q4 next year, with producer prices turning up around 1.7 percent in Q4 this year and 2.4 percent by late 1987. Employment remains near 7.2–7.3 percent this year, rising to 7.7 percent next year, while housing markets show continued improvement with rising existing and new home prices and starts projected into 1986 and 1987. The outlook for nonresidential construction remains mixed, with stores and warehouses as brighter spots amid weak manufacturing and higher office vacancies. The National Association of Realtors represents over 650,000 members.