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Newspaper
The Chronicle Telegram
Location
Elyria, Ohio, United States of America
Date
Feb 26, 2016
Page
4
As Nevada votes Tuesday and South Carolina follows, Super Tuesday on March 1 will distribute large shares of delegates to Republicans and Democrats. The SEC primary path looms for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, with many states voting and poll dynamics shifting expectations.
In 2008 Clinton lost Alabama by 14 points to Obama with black voters at 51 percent. This year Clinton gains black support against Sanders, winning the group by nearly four to one in Nevada polls. ACP and RealClearPolitics show Trump leading in Alabama, while several territories like American Samoa Guam Colorado North Dakota Wyoming have unbound delegates.
Arkansas remains a conservative stronghold with abortion laws and leadership ties to Hillary Clinton’s broad appeal in the state, while Minnesota shows Republican polling with Rubio leading Trump narrowly in a Star Tribune Mason Dixon poll amid ongoing national primary chatter.
The Texas showdown pits Clinton with a double digit edge in ACP polling against Sanders, while Cruz drives a GOP bid bolstered by state endorsements and Perry. Latino voters, 32 percent in 2008, remain a key factor as Cruz leads Trump by over nine points in the RCP average.
Vermont's political climate mirrors New Hampshire with a wide margin for Sanders in ACP data. Clinton lost Vermont to Obama in 2008, while Romney carried the state in 2012 and New Hampshire backed Trump in its primary.
Alaska remains deeply Republican in voting but ranks among the least religious states with 62 percent of residents identifying as Christian. The oil and gas sector, its economic backbone, has sagged as global prices fell, fueling anxiety. Former Gov Sarah Palin endorsed Trump while views spark debate at home. An Alaska Dispatch poll in January put Trump ahead of Cruz by four points as Democrats held caucuses later.
Massachusetts, with 116 delegates and 91 pledged, leans liberal and favored Romney in 2012. Sanders leads in one 2016 poll, while Clinton won by 15 points in 2008. The state’s Catholic voters may boost Rubio, though Trump leads in New Hampshire and Emerson polls.
Political expert Ken Goldstein notes Colorado presents a tough blend for the Clinton Sanders contest as both seek Latino voters making up about 20 percent of the population. Obama carried the state in 2008, highlighting its past caucus strength.
In Oklahoma the Clinton advantage in ACP polls is 14 points with 42 delegates and 38 pledged. Clinton carried the largely white state by 24 points in 2008, while Sanders remains a factor per Goldstein. Oklahoma, a red state with strong social conservatism, hosts Oral Roberts University and a high evangelical population. Republicans favored Santorum over Romney in 2012 and Trump currently leads Cruz by over 7 points in this year’s ACP average.
The analysis notes 116 delegates and 102 pledged, with Georgia Democrats largely Black and Clinton gaining from Nevada support and potential South Carolina results. The demographic edge could secure a decisive lead unless white support shifts to Sanders, with Clinton holding a 43 point advantage in Georgia.
Minnesota with 93 delegates 77 pledged lacks recent polling and leans caucus based. Sanders may perform well among the nearly all white electorate similar to New Hampshire while Clinton is backed by the governor and both U S senators, complicating the race dynamics.
Tennessee showed a significant black share in 2008 Democratic primaries with Clinton leading by about 40 points in ACP averages and a 14 point win in 2008. The state leans religious with born again Christians comprising most voters in 2012 and past contests favoring social conservatives like Huckabee. Vanderbilt University.
Clinton trails in the ACP average but draws support in Virginia where Terry McAuliffe governs and allies back her run. Romney won Virginia in 2012 while Trump clashes with GOP leaders over primary voter party affirmation. Christopher Newport poll shows Trump ahead of Rubio by six points in the state.
Senator Claire McCaskill announced she has breast cancer becoming the first senator to disclose a diagnosis on Tumblr. She pledged to vote remotely when possible and submit written questions for any missed hearings while undergoing treatment in St Louis, aiming to maintain transparency with constituents.
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