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Debate Over Causes and Timing of the 1970s Recession
Economists split on whether the U S downturn began in November 1973 or August 1974, with Kellner arguing the pace and signals align after shifting the start date. Leading indicators and data like industrial production, unemployment, and energy shortages shift with the chosen anchor, reshaping views of a persistent downturn versus a forthcoming expansion.
MENTIONED IN THIS ARTICLE
New York
U.S
Arthur Okun
Brookings Institution
Irwin L. Kellner
Manufacturers Hanover Trust
Kellner
New York Times