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earth limitscomputer omens global futurem: , z iyy iby Allen UtkeMost Americans seem to believe the energy crisis’’ is a temporary problem with permanent solutions just around the corner. Our current energy policy looks reasonable on paper. However, there may be a non-obvious flaw which could invalidate it—the idea of global limits to growth. In 1972, the results of a computer study of the world, done at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, for an organization known as The Club of Home, were published in a book titled, The l imits to Growth.In the study, the researchers involved defined five, interrelated variables which, they said, would decide the fate of the world. Those variables were population, resources, pollution, food production, and industrial output per capita.The group made different sets of predictions for the five variables, fed the data to the computer, and let the computer make an overall prediction. In each model, the computer predicted global population collapse in the next century due to depletion of food and natural resources, overindustrialization, overpopulation, and a toxic buildup of pollution.The study basically says if you continue to pump energy into the global system, the other variables are stimulated to further growth and the system will ultimately burst as global limits to growth are reached. The only solution that would prevent this frightening outcome was to bring both population and industrial output per capita to zero growth rates as soon as possible—on a global basis. Waiting to start until 2000 would also end in disaster, according to the computer.A second study, titled Mankind at the Turning Point was published late in 1974. This study is somewhat milder in tone than The l.imits to Growth and emphasizes possible regional rather than global catastrophes. But the general recommendations, particularly that of neededglobal cooperation remained essentially the same.For whatever the reasons, the general public has largely ignored both studies. In the scientific community, those who accept the studies are still in the distinct minority, although their numbers seem to Ue slowly growing. The cries of ‘‘alarmists,” pessimists,” ''doomsday prophets,” etc., directed toward that minority seem to be slowly subsiding.The ultimate lesson to be learned from The Limits to Growth and Mankind at the Turning Point studies is that there are limits to growth for planet Earth. One can argue when those limils will be reached, but not whether they will be reached. This lesson has been so obvious historically that most of us have overlooked it. It becomes quite obvious our current energy policy will have to be modified or even scrapped. Instead of emphasizing filling our growing 3ppctite for energy, we must devise a new policy which emphasizes seriously cutting back on our appetite.The extremely formidable roadblocks in the way of such a revolutionary change in historical direction will be emotional and psychological as well as physical and material. We’ll thus need a world revolution in thought every bit as dramatic as those brought about by Galileo, Darwin or Freud.But that revolution—the idea that more is not necessarily better—is dawning. It’s a revolution which has history on its side— a revolution whose time is rapidly coming. The revolution could be hastened by self-sacrifice and concern for future generations, but unfortunately, those qualities seem to be largely absent in our society today. It’s time we all become revolutionaries, for time is running short.The EARTH LIMITS committee invites you to share your reactions, suggestions, or point of view concerning the series or to write an article yourself. Please address to EARTH LIMITS, Box 166, Dempsey Hail. Editor's note: Allen Utke. a member of the EARTH LIMITS committee, is a UW-O instructor of Chemistry.
Newspaper Details
Oshkosh Advance Titan
Oshkosh, Wisconsin, US
Thu, Feb 27, 1975
Page 11
Full Page
Clipped by
Driftless T.
AL, USA 08 Sep 2024
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