Winnipeg Free Press Newspaper Archives Jul 4 2015, Page 8

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - July 4, 2015, Winnipeg, Manitoba C M Y K PAGE A8 T HE federal NDP’s orange wave that is sweeping across the nation, crashes on shore in Manitoba. A poll conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press by Probe Research shows fewer than one- quarter of Manitobans would mark a ballot for a federal NDP candidate in the Oct. 19 election. The poll also shows — with 43 per cent of decided voters — Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative party is by far the most popular federal party in the province. “( NDP Leader) Thomas Mulcair can probably thank Greg Selinger for that,” Curtis Brown, Probe’s vice- president, said Friday. “ The provincial NDP brand is so battered right now, it’s not helping the federal brand.” Brown said the poll also shows while the federal Liberals may be behind the NDP in other parts of Canada, they are not only ahead of the NDP here, they are doing better now than the last election and are virtually tied with the Tories in Winnipeg. “ The Liberals seem to have peaked nationally, but they still seem to be competitive here,” he said. Three in 10 Manitoba voters, or 29 per cent, would vote for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party, down three per cent from a similar poll taken in September 2013, but still higher than the 17 per cent of Manitobans who voted for the party in the 2011 election. The Green party has five per cent of surveyed voters, while 15 per cent of Manitobans say they are undecided or wouldn’t say which party they would vote for. “ But in the grand scheme of things, with 14 out of 338 seats, the federal election won’t be won or lost in Manitoba,” Brown said. Other poll findings: . In Winnipeg, the Tories are statistically tied with the Liberals at 36 per cent and 34 per cent support, respectively. . Tory support peaks at 48 per cent in northwest Winnipeg and 46 per cent in northeast Winnipeg. . The Liberals are leading the Conservatives in southwest Winnipeg with 47 per cent versus 31 per cent. . The NDP is the most popular party in the core area with 45 per cent. The Liberals have 27 per cent and the Tories have 23 per cent. . Outside Winnipeg, 53 per cent of voters would vote Tory, followed by 22 per cent for the Liberals and 16 per cent for the NDP. . The Conservative party is more popular with both men, at 47 per cent, and women, at 38 per cent, with the Liberals following at 26 per cent for men and 33 per cent for women. Brown said of the people who vote Conservative provincially, 85 per cent plan to vote for the federal Tory party. Only 62 per cent of those who vote NDP provincially plan to vote for the federal NDP. Seventy- seven per cent of those who vote Liberal provincially will cast ballots for the federal Liberals. The poll of 1,000 Manitoba adults was conducted by telephone between June 10 and June 27. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 per cent 95 per cent of the time, and higher with the subgroups. kevin. rollason@ freepress. mb. ca A 8 WINNIPEG FREE PRESS, SATURDAY, JULY 4, 2015 POLITICS winnipegfreepress. com ¡ 2011 election ¡ Mar. 2015 ¡ June 2015 50% 60% 40% 30% 20% 10% WINNIPEG 50% 60% 40% 30% 20% 10% ¡ 2011 election ¡ Mar. 2013 ¡ June 2015 NON- WINNIPEG ¡ 2011 election ¡ Sept. 2013 ¡ June 2015 50% 40% 60% 70% 80% 30% 20% 10% NON- WINNIPEG ¡ 2011 election ¡ Sept. 2013 ¡ June 2015 40% 30% 20% 10% CONSERVATIVES CONSERVATIVES LIBERALS LIBERALS NDP NDP GREENS GREENS WINNIPEG 50% Federal NDP not so popular in Manitoba CONSERVATIVES CONSERVATIVES NDP NDP LIBERALS LIBERALS GREENS GREENS POLL PROBE RESEARCH Support for federal parties in Manitoba Question: ‘ If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?’ Support for Manitoba’s political parties Question: ‘ If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?’ BRIAN Pallister’s Progressive Conservative party is still entrenched in the hearts of Manitoba voters with the NDP lagging far behind. A poll conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press by Probe Research found the Tories have the support of 46 per cent of decided voters compared with 29 per cent for Premier Greg Selinger’s NDP. Curtis Brown, Probe’s vice- president, said Friday Tory support has gone up by two per cent since the last poll taken in March while the NDP has remained unchanged. Brown said the Liberal party, under leader Rana Bokhari, dropped by one per cent to 19 per cent. “ A couple of years ago, we saw the big dip in NDP support, and nearly nothing has happened since then,” he said. “ The NDP had a rough time in the legislature in the last few weeks, but while they have been battered, the NDP floor has remained intact. It’s remarkable how things haven’t changed.” The poll shows the Green party has the support of five per cent of Manitobans while 17 per cent of Manitoba adults are undecided. Other highlights from the poll are: . About four in 10 Winnipeg voters, or 39 per cent, would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, up from 35 per cent in March, while NDP support remains at 34 per cent and Liberal support went down three per cent to 21 per cent. . The Tories are leading in northeast Winnipeg with 57 per cent support, compared with the Liberal’s 22 per cent and NDP’s 18 per cent, and northwest Winnipeg with 48 per cent, followed by the NDP’s 34 per cent and Liberal’s 14 per cent. The Tories and NDP are statistically tied in both southwest Winnipeg ( 36 per cent NDP, 35 per cent PC) and southeast Winnipeg ( 37 per cent PC, 35 per cent NDP). The NDP is leading in the core area with 48 per cent, followed by the Tories with 23 per cent and the Liberals at 20 per cent. . Outside Winnipeg, almost six in 10 voters, or 58 per cent, said they will vote for the Tories, followed by 21 per cent for the NDP and 16 per cent for the Liberals. The poll of 1,000 Manitoba adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent 95 per cent of the time. kevin. rollason@ freepress. mb. ca Tories leading pack provincially By Kevin Rollason Far ahead of second- place NDP in poll Harper still has voters’ backing By Kevin Rollason PC Leader Brian Pallister Premier Greg Selinger Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari Prime Minister Stephen Harper Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau NDP Leader Tom Mulcair MORE FEDERAL POLITICS / A13 A_ 08_ Jul- 04- 15_ FP_ 01. indd A8 7/ 3/ 15 7: 34: 15 PM