Pacific Stars And Stripes Newspaper Archives Sep 8 1983, Page 6

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Pacific Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - September 8, 1983, Tokyo, Japan 6 analysis Pacific stars and stripes september 1983 Mideast role getting precarious by Barry James United press International London the renewed fighting in Lebanon and the resignation of israeli prime minister Menachem begin last week risked plunging the United states into an increasingly dangerous political vacuum in the Middle the week marked the first anniversary of president reagans Middle East initiative that called for establishment of a palestinian self governing entity on the West Bank in association with the plan now looks As realistic As a desert while the worlds attention was riveted on begin proceeded with the de Facto annexation of the West Bank As he carried out his dream of cementing israels hold Over the biblical lands of Judea and begins Likely foreign minister Yitzhak was certain to maintain the settlements policy unaltered in line with begins dream to be remembered As the Man who set the Borders of Bretz Israel biblical Israel for All israels hawkish stance thus continues to Rule out the Remote possibility of a peace agreement with its Arab neighbors to the even Secretary of state George Shultz his conceded that dismantling israeli settlements in the disputed territory would be a statement that has further strained americas relations with the Arab King Hussein of upon whom the United states pinned Early Hopes for the Success of the Reagan now appears to be alienated from autonomy negotiations for the future of the West which Israel captured from Jordan in the 1967 Middle East have broken while the West Bank seethes with the Eye of the Middle East storm has moved to which is on the verge of partition and All out civil War As a result of the failure of Israel and soviet backed Syria to remove their troops from the having fought hard for israels withdrawal from the United states was in the paradoxical position last week of urging the israelis to delay pulling Back their forces from the mountainous area Southeast of Beirut to More secure positions in the southernmost part of the the fear was that the israeli pullout would Lead to a Bloodbath involving the disparate Christian and druze moslem religious factions vying for territorial toehold in the Christia controlled lebanese army remained the Only real Hope for Lebanon survival As a last week it met with some Success in cracking Down on sunni and druze militiamen in but it was far from certain the army could prevent civil War once israeli troops evacuated the Shouf mountains Southeast of the nor was it Likely the army could hold the country together in the absence of a political which is out of the question so Long As Syria holds on to its stronghold in the Eastern part of militia leaders bluntly rejected president Amin Gemayel Call for National the lebanese army is supported by a four Western peacekeeping including the Lack of any National consensus in Lebanon cast ambiguity Over the role of the multinational peacekeeping whose duties have been to observe rather than although not directly involved in the 22 men in the Western Force have lost their including four Reagan pondered the question of pushing forces into a More Active at weeks end he ordered a naval amphibious Force with marines aboard to sail from East Africa and take up a position off the lebanese coast in order to support the Shore based Reagan has pledged that troops will stay in Lebanon until All foreign forces have but in Washington no less than in the other capitals involved Rome and London there was increasing concern and scepticism about the wests involvement in what increasingly appeared to be a Nowin some members of joined by Senate democratic Leader Robert Byrd of West put pressure on Reagan to seek congressional approval for maintaining forces in Reagan affirming that the marines were not directly involved in if the peacekeeping soldiers Are forced by the collapse or incapacity of the lebanese army to confront the warring moslem and druze militias the stage would be set for a serious East West for behind the militia stands and behind Syria stands the soviet which has sent sophisticated antiaircraft missiles and the men to operate them into the Tinderbox China softening stance toward soviets by Victoria Graham associated press peking after a thorough reassessment of its relations with Moscow and China is adopting a significantly More positive approach to improving ties with the soviet a preliminary statement of chivas More flexible approach toward mos cow and its allies has been circulating since a Central committee working session ended july according to foreign when the committee convenes in it is expected to approve a formal statement on foreign they said a statement which is expected to provide a rationale for chivas new Effort to improve relations with socialist while China still regards the soviet Union As Overly they there is a greater willingness to move ahead in state state on China condemned the soviet Downing of a South korean jetliner As intolerable but diplomats said the incident was unlikely to Hurt sin soviet talks on normalizing the foreign envoys noted that on hours after news of the incident was received chinese president i Xian Ian said his government welcomed soviet Leader Yuri Andropov Call for reconciliation Between the two it was chivas first positive response to Andropov analysts soviet Deputy foreign minister Mikhail Kapitsa is scheduled to arrive thursday for exploratory talks before formal sin soviet consultations resume in the diplomatic analysts said China appears committed to a reduction of tension with the gradual normalization of relations and expanded economic they noted that chivas criticism of the attack on the korean air lines jumbo Jet was according to Eastern european China would like a relationship with the soviet Union somewhat like that of Yugoslavia one of cordiality but absolute inde one reason for rethinking sino soviet ties is chivas born again socialism and emphasis on socialist party Leader he Yanbang wants China to play an influential role in the International communist the policy debate also has been fuelled by disillusionment with the United states Over a series of prob especially arms sales to Taiwan and reluctance to sell High technology to China still wants to maintain Good relations with the United foreign analysts for help in its modernization and for tactical reasons As it cautiously seeks rapprochement with the policy evaluation also will be influenced by sin soviet Consulta the visit of defense Secre tary Caspar Weinberger later this foreign minister we Xue zians visit to Washington in october and his talks in new York with soviet foreign minister Andrei the two major positions in the debate have been identified with pragmatic Deng Xiaoping and his protege and ally a dedicated Deng is considered the architect of relations and the major proponent of close ties with the United states and the Deng has had to admit disappoint ment in the but apparently Hopes it can be revived after a series of analysts also have noted a decidedly warmer tone in articles about the soviet one such in the Maga Zine subsidized by the party propaganda recently wrote that soviet citizens of chinese descent revisited China to see relatives and were warmly Wel foreign analysts said the articles were preparing Public opinion for a gradual improvement in sin soviet relations after a 20year

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