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Lethbridge Herald, The (Newspaper) - October 14, 1972, Lethbridge, Alberta THB IETHBRIDGB HERAID Scilurslny, October 11, 1972 Predictions of world computer questioned By Gerald Lcneti, Iximlon Observer rniniiu'iilalvr LONDON Flaws in I lie of Hie authors, the World Bank ami the environment, and clc- hasic structure of the famous report says, tlic model Is fairly Future political leaders not which party will have Uie most scats, hut whether it will be a major- ily or a minority government. Elec- tions are never certain, but given the Conservative default in Quebec and. the NDP resurgence elsewhere, it is chance leaders lie was widely criti- hardly arguable that the Liberals will within the party for that state- lose some scats but will still be far only Robert Thompsun. former Social Credit leader niui now a key figure in the Conservative party, said in Lethbridije recently that if his party doesn't do well in this election, it will ment, but surely he was saying the obvious. Mr. Slanficld, unlike Mr. Diefenbakcr. will not struggle to hang on to the leadership after it is clear that the party is not wholly united behind him. Only the critics. At the same time the Liberal party is less than unanimous in enthusiasm for Mr. Tmdeau, and he has no ob- vious desire to hang on to Ihe leader- ship indefinitelv. The main doubt in this election is ahead of the Conservatives. There- fore Mr. Slanfield will resign. With or without a majority behind him, Mr. Trudeau is likely to resign the Liberal leadership in about three :ctory can calm years sooner, perhaps, if he lacks a majority. Therefore the next election is al- most certain lo be fought with two different contenders for the prime ministership. Instead of Stanfield and Trudeau it is likely to be Davis and Turner Limits to Growth com- puter model which predicts widespread collapse unless llierc is a quick halt to tlio growth of population, pollution, resource consumption atul cap- ital investment ensure thai it must always predict disaster, says a group of experts and consultants from tlic World Bank. Their report accuses Pi otes- sor Dennis Meadows and bis co-authors of LIMITS at tiie Massachusetts I n s I i t n te of Technology of making global claims based on a model that grossly over-simplifies tlic real world and o! an otlen "care- less and casual" use of data. Contrary lo the protestations sensitive to the assumptions that are fed into it. "Reason- able adjustments in the assump- tions refiarding population, non- rcncwablo resources and pollu- tion could postpone the predic- tion of catastrophe by another 100 01- 200 years if one accepted the general methodology of tlie model." Similar attacks on Limits to vated it into tlic status of gospel for many environment- alists. But the World Dank lo be published later this year, promises lo lie the first lull- sea I e broadside wlu'cii draws all (he main criticisms together though il is running neck and neck with a similar wide- ranging attack which has just been completed by a multi-dis- Crowth have been made since ciplinary team at the Science it was published in March Policy Research Unit at Ciit- amid a lilaze of publicity and rhetoric backed hy the Club ot Rome a scud-off that spcll- ert instant success for HIP. book in many languages, nudged several governments (including the British) into starting their own long-term studies on growth atn's University of Sussex, According to the current is- sue of the scientific journal, the World Bank report's main at- tack is not on (tic data used in the MIT model (which have of- ten been criticized) but on the basic model ilself. "It is not really a model, nor is il really about ttie the report says. Because of the flaws in the basic structure of the computer model, it often ijehavcs "per- says the report. Tlio assumptions that the MIT team make about the links between such factors as imiustrijil pro- duction, industrial output, ag- ricultural output and the output of the service industries ensure that Ihe computer model must always predict collapse. Tlic report is particularly scornful of the "indiscrimin- ate" way the MIT team select- ed its rlata on non-renewable re- sources, such as oil and min- erals. By "ignoring" (he small print in the main source that was used a fat tome called The Indian Hilton Old cars on the property of a Leth- bridge auto wrecking firm have often been used even in cold weather- as bedrooms by destitute Indians. As a result, the collection of derelict cars has come to be known as The Indian Hilton. It is a grim joke; more anguish than amusement is fell by most people who hear it. The thought of people often ill- clad _ spending cold nights without adequate shelter is distressing. A civ- ilized community must eventually de- clare it to be intolerable and do something to alleviate the sufferings of those involved. Now may be Ihe time to get something moving on a solution. Fuzzed lines of responsibility have of the struggling community service organizations to try io spearhead action? Some concerned citizens in Lelli- bridge have been agonizing over tins situation for quite awhile. A hostel for transient men has been consider- ed, but the cost of acquiring and op- erating even a modest facility has so far been thought to be beyond the realm of possibility. How could a new agency with a budget of perhaps 000 annually expect to be accepted and survive in a community that does not seem able or willing to support, Ihrough the Community Chest, the service organizations that already exist? 'Hie Indian Hilton is slaled for dis- appearance in the grand scheme for prevented an attack on the problem renovating the downtown of Leth- to date. The special status of Indians complicates the situation. Is this a matter for the band councils on near- by Indian reserves to deal with? Can tlie federal or provincial governments be called upon to come up with a solution? Does the City of Lethbridge have some responsibility to assist the unfortunate? Should it be left to one bridge. That will not eliminate the problem; it will only make it tougher for destitute men to find a place to sleep. A grim joke will become even more grim. Somehow there must be a solution to this awful human neglect. Some- one or some group will find it soon, it is hoped. Bouquets for program Tlie 28 per cent increase in job The "exposure" program geared to placements realized by the 1972 Hire- youths under 16 years of age exposed a-Student committee deserves a boil quet. This student employment venture, young people to actual job situations for five half-day periods. In many cases this opportunity served to rein- recognized as one of the most active force their career decisions and with in Canada served students in eight others it created interesting alteraa- adjoining centres as well as Leth- lives. Feed-back from this experiment bridge giving job opportunities to was mosl positive, vouth in a variety of job categories. Will) the Lethbridge program now Organized in 1969 Ibis youth-oriented being studied at the national level it employment program saw a 50 per is hoped the local success will spear- cent increase in registrations and a head similar opportunities in other 30 per cent increase in jobs last year. Canadian centres. Weekend Meditation Preparation: Key Lo Worship "Sit with a teacher at a girls school advised her pupils. This should be true of worshippers at church. Listening to a sermon should require much effort, hymns should be sung with the heart as well as the voice, and prayers should be mentally lazy preachers. He urges them io follow Paul's injunction to Timothy, to be a sound workman with no need to be ashamed (2 Timothy He himself spends from 18 to 30 hours before preach- ing lest his mind grow rusty or he goes about spouting ''vapid mouthings and pla- diligently followed if the worshipper is to titudinous banalities." say "Amen" as he should at the end o! the prayer. But if it be true, as a poll declared, that the average preacher in the U.S. takes only two hours to prepare a sermon, what worshipper would sit with energy? Surely Doubtless there are preachers who re- semble the Archdeacon Grantly in Bar- Chester Towers., whom Trollopc describes as giving the impression that he read pro- foundly in his when he was ac- tually stretched out on a couch reading the report must have been a misprint. No iight novels. Hopefully there are not many sermon worth listening lo can be prepared in two hours. Dr. E. Fosdick of Riverside Drive Church, New York, said 'that he gave one hour's preparation for every min- ute of preaching. Bishop Fulton Sheen says that he. gives on an average 30 hours of these. Such shoddy work soon shows up in the pulpit. 1'lato has n passage where he tells how with hlood. sweat, and tears he sought for hours to find the right word to express his thought, Hal Caine reported spending all morning putting In a comma of direct preparation tor each of Ms talks arid taking il out! Schiller on the ah-. Dr. Leslie Weatherhead, famous British preacher, said that he often writes out a sermon five times. The late Dr. Sangster, another famous London preacher made an eloquent plea for preachers lo work on their sermons, and tells how the renowned John Henry Jowett began life in a Yorkshire mill town at five o'clock every morning the streets were noisy with the clogs of mill workers going to earn their daily bread. rould not that they should ".wk harrier and longer than he and formal a life-lime hahit, of rising early. As the results of a poll, the New York Times stated some time that "t h o reading habits of arc slovenly, without plan or discipline, and fall short of the standard would rwper-t of a group wilb sudl ground and fx> rich an opportunity for in- tellectual leadership." Pai.l Schcrcr, who reports this, is very hard on such Mineral Facts and Problems published by the U.S. bureau of mines to Growth unrjerestimated global mineral reserves already known, large- ly ignored the considerable in- creases in known reserves of most important metals that have occurred in the past few decades, and almost entirely ignored the fact that given higher metal prices reserves can often be multiplied several times because it then becomes profitable to work lower-grade ores. However, the World Bank re- port goes much of the way with the MIT team in its worries about the effects of population growth. One critically import- ant point it makes is to doubt the view ttiat economic growth and rising affluence will auto- matically lower birth rales in (he mass of poorer countries, as happened almost universally in Europe in Ihe last century. ,In recent years, the report says, ttie relations between prosperity and fertility and mortality have become weaker in the Third World and may "further weaken" in the years ahead. Tliis theory of automatic stabilization of p o p u 1 ation growlh has been one of the main planks of the.population optimists. liut the World Bank report implies that it would be better to forget it and con- centrate instead on the real is- sues of arresting population growth hy voluntary means and by the use of more effi- cient contraceptive techniques suitable for poor countries. Environmentalists wr o r t h their salt are unlikely to take this attack by the growth- oriented World Bank too much to heart. Though they would be foolish If they continued be- lieving in every lasl tacl and computer print-out in Limits to Growth as gospel truth, the World Bank report does not really answer some of the fun- damental questions raised by LIMITS about growlh in a fin- ite world nor some of the questions it does not raise {like what a continual hand-in-hand escalation of resource prices and resource depletion, will do to poorer The growth versus no-growth tussle has several hard-hitting rounds to go yet. Even the World Bank report appears to recognize this when it concludes that Limits to Growth may have helped people to get in- terested in world environmen- tal problems and that the ques- tion now is not how to save mankind but how to improve global models of the world's environmental Mure. Creditistes, not separatists show increase MONTREAL Two McGill University sociologists have re- leased a study citing statistical evidence to show that support for separatism among French' By Peter Desbarats. Toronto Star, Ottawa commentator position Quebec somewhat similar to the position of Ihe New Democratic Party at the provincial level in Ontario. The study contains a forecast speaking Quebeckers has not of a Liberal majority and Cred- increased but has remained un- changed for the past decade. Analyzing published public opinion polls and an unpublish- ed survey of Quebeckers made by one of the sociolgists, Maurice Pinard, the study states that contrary to frequent Hamilton paper is ob- viously calculated to contribute to the renewed debate about Quebec separatism touched off by the Parti Quebecois' cur- rent anti campaign in the fed- itiste opposition "in Quebec after cral election, and about Que- the next provincial election, ex- bee's right to "auto determina- tion" in the event of a Parti Quebecois victory in a future Quebec election. The main point of the Pin- ard-Hamilton study is that this Is an unlikely prospect. pected In 1974, if support for the Creditisles continues to in- crease throughout the province. The study, titled Quebec's Parties at the Midpoint: Cred- ilisfces Growing. Parti Quebec- assertions the separatist Parti ois Standing Still, is the work There have been polls on the Quebecois is "not on t h e of Pinard and another McGill subject of separatism almost sociologist Richard Hamilton. Pinard is a French speaking Quebecker whose most recent march." If any party is on .the move or is to be designated-the com- ing thing in Quebec, according book is a definitive study of to the study, "it would have to the sudden rise of the Social be the Creditistes." Pinard, commenting on the study In an interview said, va- rious surveys indicate that the Parti Quebecois probably reached a peak of public sup- port in the 1970 Quebec elec- tion. Pinard said prob- ably will remain at this level for some time, occupying a every year in Quelxjc going back to Ihe early 1960s, it states. "At no lime in the decade has Ihe percentage in favor of separation exceeded Even Credit party in Quebec in the within the French speaking 1962 federal election, The Rise of a Third Party; A Study in Crisis Politics, published in the United States and Canada last year. Hamilton is a bilingual American books include s I u d i e s of political economic and class divisions in France and the United States. The release of the Pinard- mm WORLD used in put his fret in cold water to bring tnsniral.ion. earths and MJItnn a y smothered in hlankel.s ''thinking horizont- ally.'1 Dickens, who believed in magnetic influences, turned his Lo the north. Vincent (finely angry when Cesar Franck m.'idc: some marks changing his manuscript. he was wise enough lo realize Kiam.-k had greatly improved the wru-J-: and ;tskrrl if he might, become his pupil. "Come r.very dTiy a I MX." TV I nrjy protested l.ha t this v.01 ild rli.sfnih Franck's hour. "I six in UIR said the masl'jr. If i.s lo meaningful find fly- naiviK', wVicm-ver ;nid however preachers fiiirl and do their Ihinking, Ihey vc i o work a I t hei r prepare t ion. They linvr; lo Ami worshippers work too. 8. M. population, the highest in favor of separatism was only 17 per cent, that being the find- ing of a study done in late 1970, "These figures have changed very little over time. If one tried to discern a trend in these data, the conclusion would be that both the proportions of peo- ple favorable and of those un- favorable to separatism had in- creased slightly over lime. The wily decline has been among (lie undecided." The !97ft study, which pro- duced the 17 per cent response in favor of separatism, was an i in published survey of 2, WO Quebeckers directed hy Pinard. Jt also showed that 74 per cent of the French speaking becfccrs interviewed during thn survey were opposed to ,sepru-- afion. The Pinard-IL'timiton paper also cites a numlxjr of more re- cent, surveys of Quebec opinion: A survey of 575 I'Ycnch-.speak- ing Qifcbec.'fcfirs, undertaken April for the Canadian R roadcasti og Corpora t ion a nd published in Ihe Montreal daily Presse, which oMimatod Quehecois e 1 e c t o ral .strength outside metropolitan Montreal at 21 per cent of the vote compared with the 10 per cent actually received in this region in the 1070 elcclirjii, be- cause the survey involved only French speaking Quebeckers. It probably overestimated Ihn percentage of popular support ibat would bo received, in an election in which Quebec's Eng- lish speaking minority would vote against the Part Quebec- ois. A survey of 406 Montrealcrs last August published in La Presse on Aug. 15 which gave Quebec Liberals an estimated 62 per cent of the vote com- pared with the 56 per cent they received in Montreal in 1970, and which showed the Parti Quebecois increasing its share of the vote during the same period from 29 to 32 per cent. A recent Gallup Poll which repeated a question asked Que- beckers in 1969: "In general, would you say that you have a favorable or unfavorable opin- ion of Kene The favorable response for the lead- er of the Parti Quobecois in 1972 was 35 per cent compared with per cent in 19fi9. The unfavorable response was ex- actly the .snme in 1U72 as in 1969 41 per cent. The Pinard Hamilton analy- sis of these and ottier polls leads them lo the conclusion that support for separation in Quebec varies directly edu- cational level. It is strongest among uni- versity educated intellectuals, school teachers, professors, stu- dents, journalists and so on, stale the McGill sociologists. "It is hy no means as strong among blue collar workers al- though, lo be sure, many of them voted Tor the PQ." "This, however, points up one of the features nf lliat party's clientele. Tlie percent- age who vole for or who favor the Parti Quebecois has been consistently greater than the percentage In favor of separa- tion. Polls done prior to tha 1970 Quebec election showed roughly half of the PQ voters as not In favor of separatism, "And most of those who make this linkage, supporting the party, but opposing the most obvious element in pro- gram, are blue collar work- ers." Explaining tiie rationale for making their study public at this time the sociologist cited an article last June 28 in the Wall Street Journal headlined: After Some Dark Days, Separ- atist Movement in Quebec Is Reviving, "In some ways, 'Separatism' has the same relationship in Quebec affairs as 'backlash' (o the United the McGill sociologists claimed. "Those who are somewhat distant from the actual events misread what is happening and lonn grossly distorted pictures of public opinion. If il were just a matlor of a handful of intel- lectuals and of misinformation passed on in thoir own curious little circles, one might find it, rosy 'o hf! indifferent to Ihoir fancies. "Unfortunately, both pubtia policy and subsequent elector- al strategies come to be built on these dif.iorled nolions. The major victims then are the poor, the unemployed white col- lar workers in modest circum- stances, and blue collar work- ers." Tltc Lctldmdge Herald 7th SI. S., IvOthbridge, Alberta LETIIBRIDfiE'HERALD r.O. LTD., Proprietors and Publishers Published -1954, by Hon. W. A. BUCHANAN Secwid Class Mall Reslslrallon Ho 001? Member of The Canadian Press find Daily Mcwspawr Publishers' and 1he Audit Gurrau o' tirtulaticnj CLEO W. MOWERS, Editor ar.d Publisher H. ADAMS, OOtl Managing Edlfer ROY F. MILES Advertising Manager WIl.l.lAM HAY Av.oci--io DOUGLAS K. WALKER editorial p.irjs Editor THE HERAID SERVES THE SOUTH" ;