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Lethbridge Herald Newspaper Archives

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Lethbridge Herald, The (Newspaper) - December 16, 1971, Lethbridge, Alberta .Thursday, December 16, 1971 THE LETHBRIDGE HERAID 27 Business executives give outlook Some improvement forecast in Canadian economy during 1972 By BUD JORGENSKN TORONTO (CP) A group of senior business executives fore- casts some improvement, in lhc Canadian economy during 1972 but there may be continuing weaknesses in many areas. Most resource induslries have more problems ahead and the outlook is uncertain for some manufacturing sectors. The summary of forecasts was made at the annual business outlook conference sponsored by the University of Toronto School of Business. Relations with the United j States and the extent to which U.S. protectionism develops was listed as a major concern by executives speaking at Uie one- day forum. The future value of the Cana-! dian dollar is crucial as a higher value would reduce profit margins for Canadian ex- porters. The pressure which has resulted in a seven-cent in- crease in the value of the dollar during the past 18 months has come primarily from the U.S. Buoyancy in housing construc- tion has been one of the most positive offsetting factors dur- ing 1971 and a continuation of this trend is expected. Housing construction means demand for building materials and for new products to stock completed homes. OPENS SESSION Prof. J. A. Sawyer of the uni- versity's business department was the opening speaker and he was followed by 10 executives representine major sections of the economy. Prof. Sawyer presented a forecast for 1972 based on projections from two computer- ized models of the Canadian Most speakers agreed that the additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. last Aug. 15 would likely be lifted during 1872. The tariffs were part of a series of economic controls brought in by President. Nixon and were consi- dered to be a bargaining tool to gain trade concessions from other nations. The businessmen were more concerned about other U.S. measures designed to support domestic production and which make Canadian exports less competitive. The businessmen c o n c e n- trated on prospects for their in- dustries and here is a summary of their comments. FINANCIAL MARKETS P. A. T. Campbell, Toronto, director of the securities firm Wood Gund Ltd.: The stock market is expected to have an "extremely explosive upward movement in 1972." Short- and long-term interest rates are not likely to decline and probably will be stable. Medium-term in- terest rates "is where the action is." Mortgage rates, which now are usually for a five-year term, are in the mid-term category and there should be a strong demand because of housing con- struction projections. CONSTRUCTION Robert C. T. Stewart, Halifax, president of the Canadian Con- struction Association: The in- dustry should have a growth rale of between four and five per cent this year and this rate will at least be maintained dur- ing 1972. The growth during 1971 was "the first positive physical increase since 1966." Housing starts during 1971 will surpass Consumer spending is expected so by about seven per to inerci cent dur eight pc- 1 a s I. corrcspo ng compared with cent tiiis year over iar. Department-store profits 1 kely will be reduced dingly. PETHOLKL'M IMIODUCTS W. 0. Twaits, Toronto, chair- man, Imperial Oil Ltd.: During 1971, Canada exported for the first time more than half its crude oil production and this sit- uation will improve further dur- ing 1972. The largest contributor to this growth rate was the U.S., which is projected to need to import about 45 per cent of its petroleum needs by IfiflO. The Canadian industry must export to the U.S. and other countries to provide the scale of opera- tions to develop further re- serves. "The outlook for Canada is very good if we have the matu- rity to capitalize on our oppor- tunities." Petroleum products currently are underpriced and the increasing costs of pollution control equipment domestically and crude prices overseas will push up product prices. FOREST PRODUCTS D. W. Timmis, Vancouver, ex- ecutive vice-president for opera- tions, MacMillan Bloedel Ltd.: Wood product sales are ex- peeled to be strong during 1972, of negotiations for new union primarily because of surges in contracts during 1972. The in- housing construction in Canada dustry is exiwctcd to utilize 90 j and the United States. The per cent of its capacity. Capac- ncwsprint industry currently is I ily utilization dropped lo 112 per depressed and little improve- j cent from 9-1 per cent between ment is expected before mid-j and 1971. This vear has 1972. There may be better de- j been a period of international mand for newsprint from the overcapacity. U.S. but a similar improvement is not likely elsewhere. STEEL Frank H. Sherman, Hamilton, president, Dominion Foundries and Steel Ltd.: Ingot production is expected to be 12.0 million net tons during 1972, an in- crease of about five per cent. A major faclor concerning the projection would be the outcome ELECTRICAL MFG. Walter fi. Ward, Toronto, president, Canadian General Electric Co. Ltd.: The industry has been under extreme com- pelitive pressure in Canada be- cause of low-cost overseas prod- ucts. The U.S. accounted for 55 per cent of its export volume in 1970 and the recent U.S. eco- nomic moves will hurt the in- dustry's export competitiveness. Meanwhile, labor and other pro- duction costs are rising. "Against this broad back- ground of economic ;md indus- try problems, we see 1972 as a year when industry growth will he no more than moderate and this is more than normally un- certain." CHEMICALS R. ,1. Richardson. Montreal, executive vice-president, D u Pont of Canada Ltd.: The indus- try has been unable to compete effectively with foreign imports and a "continuation of recent trends spells trouble for the Ca- nadian chemical industry." The government appears to be rcas- r.scs.sing its view of the Industry. "If 1 am correct in this assess- ment, then I am optimistic that in the future business and gov- j eminent can work more co-op- eratively than in Ihs past to find constructive solutions. LEISURE PRODUCTS Charles Lcblanc, Valcourt, Quo., executive vice-president, Bombardier Ltd.: An over-all increase of between 18 and 20 pci' cent in sales in the sporting and athletic poods sector is forecast for 1972, and "it will be difficult for manufacturers, both Canadian and American, to meet this gain." Speakers at the conference presented prepared papers. The unemployment rate is ex- pected to average about per cent during 1972, compared with about 6U per cent this year. Inflation is projected to be about Vn per cent next year, up from'about three ncr cent this year. Tlie gross national the total value of goods and services produced by the econ- expected to increase by more than 10 per cent compared with about per cent during 1971. Tlie projected gain next year would bring GNP lo more tlian S100 billion. Prof. Sawyer predicted that Canada would have a deficit of about million in its balance of difference be- tween exports and imports of merchandize and currencies. This would compare with a sur- plus of about million this year. for at least units during 1972. .MINING R. D. Armstrong, Toronto, president of Rio Algom Mines Ltd.: Canada will be fortunate if it equals 1971 mining produc- tion and export levels in 1972. The value of ing all mined products except likely will be about S4 billion, com- pared with an estimated S3.875 billion during 1971 and billion during ]970. Prices of major were depressed during 1971 because of over-sup- ply conditions and little im- provement is seen for 1972. The dollar values of production are not adjusted to account for in- flation. RETAIL MERCHANDISING Morgan Reid, Toronto, vice- president, Simpsons-Sears Ltd.: Star and writer happy with life PALM BEACH, Fla. (Reulcr, spare from skiing and other i Exactly like Ihe old-fashioned sports. Besides beng a novelist, motion-picture ending, the star I he's also a screen writer and and the writer are living hap- j most proud of Decision Before pily ever after. Dawn. i They live in Klosters, Switzer- He hasn't worked on films for I when they travel quite a while. I off to Paris or London or the j "The screen writer was a j south of France, or to the U.S. highly paid slave who never had I to publicize his new book. Bicy-; much to be says. "The cle On The Beach, or to visit I director is to man who calls neighbors who also happen to I the shots. Now. it's not so lucra- i have a home in Palm Beach. live, but there's a little more to Te cast? Deborah, Kerr. 30.! say." j and Peter Viertcl, 50. She re- SEX NOT ESSENN'TIAI. I tains her beauty, her charm what he does say, in his new- j her English accent. He's tali, City council fattens pay envelopes est novel, a love story between a young man and an older woman, is that love dominates sex and not wee versa. So it's love and not sex that's esson- j tial. though he conceded "they I say when sex is bad it's 90 per i i cent of marriage, when it's good it's per cent.'1 Deborah agrees. "We define life just about the i same. We have the same out- j i-DAvnr nDMBii- ,nn, !look- We sec lhc GRANDE PRAIRIh (CP) eves our own individuality. I City council voted to give itself w a peace and satisfaction. Every-; day life is a simple life. We a 33 1-3 per cent sa crease. Council had earlier dis- cussed tha possibility of a 117- i don.( wnnt hc tTCniendously i per-cenl raise. social.. Tlie increase pushed lhc ,Ic ,ovcs his wol.k she lovns mayor's salary lo S7.200 from I hcr work ..when j do it a year and that of alder-1 if noti it bug nlc men to from Tlie whcn not gctting attention increases average out at eight i or offcrSi i( docsn., hotncl. mc.- per cent, a year since Ihe last other things she does are raise in 1967. i household things and shopping, i Mayor Elmer Bnrslad said ho hut painting is her love. "I would have fell gimly accepting ncver enough time." tho 67-pcr-ccnt increase, but; in a Way, she said, "I think pointed out that he spends as j i'm terribly lucky because I j much time as he can away I Was born with 'something 1 from his own business about i I lucky I was no- 120 hours a month. 'secmed to j have some talent. You put it to golher and it's like making a cake." She was married previously to RAF hero Tony Hartley. "We didn't see lifo through the same eyes. Hut. out of that I had wonderful children, and Iwlievc me. it is not a hitler experience. 'And then I had the immense rni.ii'K nuiWD ATHERTOX, England (CP) Constable Tom Dabcr's long friendship with William Whar- lon and his wife paid unex- pected dividends. Wharlmi, who rlifd recently at Ihe age of llj, li'ft Ihe policeman .CM (about j good fortune lo meet Ihe man .'-MO) for lhc officer's kindness I'm married to now. Through him, I've learned to enjoy living every minute of my life." lo lhc elderly couple over the ON SALE: DEC. 15 17 is EN'S DRESS SHIRT BARGAIN Long sleeve, Acetate Poll'' sster pullover with mock turtle neck, button placket. Purple, iee. Sizes: S-M-L-XL Choose from an assort- ment of plain shades, patterns, stripes and sizes in these shirts. Lone Point collar. KNIT PANTS BOTANY BOUCLE FANCY PATTERNS FOR YOUNG MEN For men. Has 6 bullon (rant. 2 insert pockets, ribbed waist- band and cuffs. Moss Green, Mustard, Biown.Teal. S-M-L-XL. Knit pants are making fashion news. These are in a fancy knit with zipper fly, two front and two back pockets.' In an assortment of treat colours. Sizes: 28- LINED LEATHER GLOVES 3 days only Men's gloves with trim back, side vent. Black only. Sizes: S-M-L. 3 days only Polyester V tie with Kroy jl sin! Nylon stretch socks. Assorted colours. Visa Dora ties, four.m-h.inrl or regular lies. We liavc a assortment, fashionably 4" wide. Open Daily ;