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Lethbridge Herald, The (Newspaper) - April 20, 1974, Lethbridge, Alberta Saturday, April zo, inc uci Grain or livestock? Farmers facing crucial choice WINNIPEG (CP) The Canada Grains Council was told Friday that Canadian agriculture faces a crucial decision on whether to continue stressing grain production or to switch to policies supporting livestock production. W. A. Mill of Toronto, presi- dent of Swift Canadian Co. Ltd., said the choice is not an 'World closer to depression' UNITED NATIONS (AP) Secretary-General Kurt Wald- heim said this week trade deficits caused by recent big boosts in oil and other prices might head the world toward depression. He declared in a note to the General Assembly that price increases have so changed all countries' trade balances that this "may seriously affect the prospects for growth of the en- tire world economy." The note. The hypothetical impact of commodity price movement on world trade, is the latest instalment of a report on price trends since' 1950 prepared for the assembly's current special session on raw materials and development. It said even if the volume of world trade in 1974 are no longer than in 1970, the higher prices of 1974 will mean that "world exports would amount to nearly double the 1970 value." The 96 developing countries asked for the report to show that they fare badly in trade because they must pay more for the manufactures they buy than they get for the primary products they sell. U.S. economy sinks swiftly WASHINGTON (CP) The United States economy- sank sAviftly toward recession levels in the first quarter of the year, while inflation pushed prices upward at an ever-increasing rate, government figures, showed this week. The commerce department said the country's gross na- tjonal product (GNP) dropped at a 5.8-per-cent annual rate in the first three months of the year, the first decline in three years and the biggest drop since 1958. Inflation, on the other hand, soared at a 10.8 per cent annual rate. The bad news came one day after President Nixon an- nounced he was going to play a bigger role in economic policy-making. It also raised serious ques- tions whether the United States would be able to avoid a recession this year, as Nixon has promised. A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of GNP decline. The GNP measures the total value of output of the country's goods and services and is considered the best index of the health of the economy. The Arab oil embargo and energy crisis apparently were important factors in the first- quarter economic decline. The commerce department said the sharp cuts in auto production was one of two major reasons for the falling GNP. The other was a decline in home building, which has been hit by high interest rates. British trade deficit plunges LONDON (AP) Britain's foreign trade deficit plunged into the red by more than billion in. March, the worst deficit in the country's history, the department of trade and industry reported Friday. JAPAN HAS DEFICIT TOKYO (AP) Japan's over-all balance of payment for the fiscal year ended March was a record billion deficit against a billion surpus in fiscal 1972 and a record surplus in fiscal 1971, the government said today. The department said the deficit amounted to million The previous high was February's deficit of million The figures were announced just after the government dis- closed that inflation in March reached a record high of 13.5 per cent and is expected to get worst this month. The Labor government blamed the problems on the three-day work week temporarily imposed on some industries last December by the previous Conservative government because of an energy crunch caused by a coal miners' slowdown and strike and rising oil prices. For 1 or 5 Year Term GUARANTEED SAVINGS CERTIFICATES Interest payable monthly, quarterly, or compounded to maturity. Member Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation Fm FARMERS MERCHANTS 309 7th Street S., Lethbridge TRUST Phone 328-5548 easy one at a time ol high prices and almost unlimited export demand for wheat and other grains, but the livestock alternative is attractive. He said while Canadian pro- ducers can be pleased with current returns on a buoyant world grain market, a close look at economic trends in the major purchasing countries for Canadian grain is not so reassuring. Mr. Mill said China and .Russia took about 28 per cent of Canada's grain exports over the last five years, but their volume of purchases is erratic, depending on their own yields, and both are trying hard to become self- sufficient. A trend to self-sufficiency is also evident .among the coun- tries that comprised the Eu- ropean Common Market, which took about 18 per cent of Canada's grain exports. Britain, which took 14 per cent, has had a drop in imports but Japan, which accounted for 16 per cent, remains at a stable import level. Mr. Mill said the purchasing outlook for these large buyers, which together have bought 76 per cent of Canada's grain ex- ports over the last five years, is enough to make the Canadian grain grower concerned, if not actually nervous. John D. McAnulty of Mon- treal, production director for the Miracle Feeds division of Ogilvie Flour Mills Co. Ltd., told the conference that with the increasing world grain supply, there will be more pressure to convert grain into high quality animal products. "People will not be satisfied with just solving the problem of sufficient food to meet their nutrient requirements, but once this is obtained the push to improve the quality of their food will be even stronger than for sufficient food.'' Mr. McAnulty said some of the countries that traditionally imported grain have been having increasing success with their own grain growing programs, with crop yields at least three times greater than in previous years. Albert Vielfaure of La Bro- querie, Man., said Quebec, the Maritimes and British Columbia likely will make a big effort in the near future to achieve self-sufficiency in hog production, and the Prairies will have to look harder for hog markets outside Canada. Mr. Vielfaure, hog producer representative on the national marketing council, said Canada must try for more new hog markets in the United States. Japan, Cuba and elsewhere. A recent contract between the C. Itoh Co. of Japan and the Manitoba Hog Producers Marketing Board was an encouraging de- velopment. More 1 business news Page 381 SiWSftWftftSKWSWiSSSftSSWKS Vancouver exchange takes poll VANCOUVER (CP) The Vancouver stock exchange is polling its members in order to determine the opening hour for the exchange when daylight time comes into effect later this month. The Montreal stock exchange has announced it will operate from a.m. to p.m. EDT instead of the 10 a.m. EDT opening used in past years. The Toronto exchange is polling its members. It has proposed the same operating hours as Montreal's to its members. The Vancouver exchange is waiting to see what hours the Toronto exchange decides on, a spokesman said today. "We're polling our members on whether they want to open at a.m. PDT to match the Montreal and possibly Toronto the spokesman said. Mine pithead This is the pithead at Princess Colliery in Sydney Mines, N.S., a mine operated by the Cape Breton Deve'lopment Corp. It employs 550 miners. About tons of coal are produced weekly at Princess, one of them three mines operated by the corporation. Inflation blamed for phantom profit VANCOUVER (CP) Inflation is creating phantom, illusory profits for Canadian businesses, J. L. McPherson, president of the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants, said here this week. Because government and business has not properly explained what is happening the public does not realize the situation, he suggested. "Those newspaper reports that told you that profits rose last year by 37 per cent in Canada also told you that living costs went up by 10 per cent, food by 17 per cent, and wholesale prices and costs of materials by 20 per cent he said. "None of these factors at present is built into company financial statements. For instance, most companies figure the cost of their inventories on the basis of acquisition prices. So, if the prices rise before inventory is replaced, reported profits are inflated. These inventory profits can look healthy enough until the company gets around to replacing the goods it has sold or used. That's when you realize that these are only phantom profits." 6DES ban behind beef increase VANCOUVER (CP) Retailers here are blaming a retail price increase of 10-to- 15 cents a pound for beef on the federal government's ban on imports of U.S. beef treated with the fattening hormone DES. In the wake of the ban, Agriculture Minister Eugene Whelan announced he would like to see live beef prices rise to the point where producers can be self-sufficient without the five cents a pound federal beef subsidy. John Leask, district livestock supervisor for the department, said Friday that to meet Mr. Whelan's goal, on the hoof beef prices will have to rise another six cents a pound to 57 cents a pound for grade A-l steers. They were selling at 51 cents a pound on the Calgary market Thursday, an increase of six cents a pound since the DES ban was announced April 9. "1 think beef is about as cheap as it's going to Mr. Leask said. He said the ban on- DES- treated cattle has led to an effective ban on all U.S. beef, which was depressing Jhe price of Canadian cattle because there was a surplus of I'.S. beef. Now. he said, the overall beef supply is down 10 per cent. This means prices are rising to meet the limited supply. The government wants to encourage production by making the price attractive to ensure there are no beef shortages this summer, Mr. Leask added. Ken Topper, spokesman for I he Cattle Feeders Association, said he thinks the price rise may be due only to the behaviour of the Calgary becl market and publicity given the ban. "A lot of times this is just because ol the publicity given government he said. "People expect a higher price, so why disappoint Mr. McPherson said he was concerned about two areas of profits price level accounting and return on investment. And, he added, "profits is not a dirty word: it's a word that spells activity, jobs, opportunity, social systems to care for the handicapped, the sick and the underprivileged." Inflation, he said, distorts profits where companies exercise depreciation to reflect the gradual obsolescence of their buildings and equipment. And all business must relate its income to the income of the ordinary investor. "A profit, however large, is not satisfactory and never will be if it is less than the return that business could have got in a risk-free investment such as government bonds. "A company making a percentage rate of return that is less than the risk-free rate of return is, in fact, making a loss and not a profit at all." he said. Alberta considers industry rules EDMONTON (CP) Alberta is actively considering development rules for new industries that wants to use the province's oil and natural gas to make their products, Premier Peter Lougheed said Friday. "It is hopeful that we will have something further to say either by way of legislation or a ministerial announcement in 'the very near the premier said in the legislature. "The matter is under very active consideration. No final decision has been made on a general basis although it may be possible that some specific cases wili be dealt with soon." Mr. Lougheed told Bob Clark. Social Credit house leader, that existing legislation provides "very little control" over how oil and natural gas are used within the province. Shortages in North America have made the province attractive to industries that want to process Alberta resources into fertilizer, methanol and petrochemicals. The premier assured MLAs that Alberta Ammonia Ltd. will have to satisfy the government that its proposal to build the world's largest fertilizer plant in Southern Alberta will use natural gas efficiently. The plant would use more than 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas, more than five per cent of Alberta's proven reserves. No formal permits, except lor environmental controls, now are required for industrial development. THE Tlic Herald Business Auto profit drop foreca DETROIT (AP) Stock market analysts predict the Big Three auto-makers collectively will report their worst lirst-quarter profits in more than a decade. The analysts say January- through-March earnings for General Motors, Ford and Chrysler will range from very poor to terrible because of a severe sales slump coming on the heels of a banner year in 1973. The auto-makers will release their January-March operating results in 10 days. Sales are down more than 27 per cent from last year, and production has fallen 34 per cent, forcing the layoff of more than workers. General Motors, the in- dustry's No. 1 producer, is ex- pected to be the biggest loser. GM's sales during the quarter fell nearly 38 per cent because big cars, the mainstay of the company's previous success, aren't selling. GM attributes the sales slump to consumer uncertainty over the economy and fuel availability. SMALL CARS A BOON The stock experts say Ford is in the best profit position because of its early invasion of the small-car market with a variety of compacts and subcompacts, even though its sales were off 24 per cent from the first three months of 1973. If the analysts' gloomy fore- casts are correct. Big Three first-quarter profits will total as little as a share, the lowest level since 1961, when the auto-makers returned an aggregate J5 cents a share. Auto analyst Robert Williams of Argus Research Corp. in New York said earnings would look especially poor in contrast with the first of 1973 when the companies reported record total earnings of a share. Estimates on GM earnings range from 25 cents to 50 cents a share. That compares with a share during the first quarter of 1973 and during the October- December. 1973, period, when GM sales first began to decline. BRAZIL REVALUES RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) Brazil has devalued the cru- zeiro, setting the buying rate at 6.51 per U.S. dollar, and the selling rate at 6.55. It was the third devaluation and read- justment of the cruzeiro this year and the first devaluation since President Ernesto Geisel took office March 15. Exchange rates of 6.41 and 6.45. buying and selling, went into effect Feb. 20. The analysts expect Ford to return a share, compared with for last year's first quarter and 58 cents for Octo- ber-December. 1973. Predictions on Chrysler earnings range from 10 cents a share to 50 cents compared with for the same 1973 period and for the last reported quarter. Bear fence fund made available EDMONTON (CP! The Alberta government has announced it would pay half the costs of constructing electric fences to keep bears out of fields where beehives are kept. A maximum grant of is available to beekeepers for each fence meeting required specifications, said a prepared release from the lands and forests department. The two-year program is an attempt tojence between 400 and 500 beeyards, mostly in the Peace River region where chronic bear damage occurs. The effectiveness of the program will be monitored, said the release. In addition, the bag limit for hunters may be increased to two bears from one. it said. "A bear quota for holders of registered traplines has been instituted to further assist beekeepers." Left unchecked, the conflict between beekeepers and bears could cause an estimated annual loss of to Alberta beekeepers. An equal loss would be sustained by seed producers from reduced pollination of clover and other crops. H. H. Smith Ltd. Customs Broker Lllhbridgi Phone 328-8141 604-424-5458 COUTTS Home Office Phone 344-3822 FOR SALE! 14 Recorded Purebred Charolais Bulls 2 Limousin Bulls. All are 2 and 3 years old. Phone 327-2568 after 6 p.m. CDMONTON Trk'fihonr 434 UJ Tpl.-i 037 Canada Trust Appointments T. (Jock) Richardson Fred Fairbairn The Canada Trust Company is pleased to announce the appointment of T. (Jock) Richardson and Fred Fairbairn to the Real Estate Sales Staff. Jock was born and raised in Glasgow, Scotland. He and his Canadian family resided in Eastern Canada for several years but returned to Lethbridge approxi- mately 3 years ago, after working in Calgary with real estate. Fred has resided in Claresholm since 1920 and has been associated with real estate sales for seven years. Fred is married with two children. He will be working out of Claresholm. Both of these real estate personnel come to Canada Trust highly recommended and look forward to serving your every Real Estate need. When con- templating buying or selling your home, business or farmland, give either Jock or Fred a call. CANADA TRUST 622 Third South Telephone 327-8581 u.....u i" i.' i" fic.i' fswie Associations ;