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Cedar Rapids Gazette (Newspaper) - November 29, 1974, Cedar Rapids, Iowa Uneasy vigil: After Vladivostok, what? Editorial Page Friday, Novomber 29, 1974 Economic comeback near? Unless the country's economic sages are reading the crystal ball upside down, Americans next year can expect a bounceback highlighted by a return to good old single-digit inflation. One of the prices exacted for general re- lief will be unemployment climb- ing perhaps to a distressing 7.5 percent. Those, in effect, are the fore- casts of business analysts polled this month by the Christian Sci- ence Monitor. Naturally, many midwesterners will take the Eastern prophesying with a grain of salt. Since simul- taneous inflation and higher un- employment have made a mock- ery of textbook economics, one tends to devalue such predictions. Another reason for skepticism is economists' insistence on general- ization. No matter that unemploy- ment for some age and ethnic divisions may run 25 to 35 per- cent, to the country's corps of highly-educated and lofty-salaried business analysts, 4 percent job- lessness is full employment and 6 percent is bearable. Misgivings and prejudices aside, though, business econo- mists have done remarkably well at predicting the 1974 recession. In September, 1972, Raymond Saulnier, onetime chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, told a group of editorial writers that 1974 would be a very tough year. Inflation would really get going, according to a con- sensus of business analysts (Saulnier and government would urge Americans to pull in their belts. The great credit crunch and accompanying stock market woes also were foreseen. Interestingly, those predictions all were made BEFORE the Watergate maelstrom dragged down President Nixon and all but a life raft load of his crew. Even with the anticipation of "Four More the conservative, mostly Republican economists saw big trouble coming up in '74. Some predictions were muffed 1973 got a cheerier prognosis than was warranted but as a group, business advisers and professors showed a hefty accura- cy percentage. The record thus suggests that Americans can look realistically toward an economic recovery beginning next spring or summer. Trouble is, though, experts are expecting the public to believe the economy will stay in bad shape for much longer which trend would bode ill for President Ford's re-election hopes. Here's hoping business analysts are all wet with their protracted- pessimism forecast. The surest way to prolong an economic slump is by selling short the country's resiliency. School damage increasing Eastern lowans who feel snug- ly insulated from big-city prob- lems ought to consider the mind- less destruction of public proper- ty last weekend at North Linn el- ementary school in Coggon. Typewriters wrecked, windows smashed, plumbing damaged, walls and fixtures smeared with mustard and catsup the sacking and other recent school breakins evoke images of an infi- nite number of felons wreaking havoc in an infinite num- ber of school buildings. All for the purpose of, educa- tion back 10 or 15 years? What makes the spate of breakins so alarming is the .sim- ilarity to disorder on school grounds elsewhere. School Prod- uct News reports that vandalism totals a half-billion dollars a year in the United States' public school districts. In the great majority of cases solved, breakins are traced to youngsters, though not necessari- ly pupils enrolled in the schools entered and damaged. Why is the bent for destruction zeroed in on school property? Psychologists most often lay blame on adverse home environ- ments which make it very hard for children to concentrate, and thus succeed, in school. Frustra- ted at home but unable to vent anger there, disturbed youth are templed to cause mayhem at the other site of unhappiness, the schoolroom. Culprits often turn out to be dropouts. Whether school intruders in Eastern Iowa fit the national pattern will be for law enforcers and child specialists to deter- mine, if they can. Perhaps the motives for breakins such as the Coggon school wrecking are no more complicated than the basic urge to raise hell. When tomb- stones are loo heavy for quick tipovers and police and mer- chants are too watchful for pellet gun target practice, what's a more natural outlet for idiocy than an old-fashioned schoolhouse bust-in? If these remarks seem angry, the effect is intentional. There isn't a school district in Iowa lhat can afford the malicious damage that vandals are dishing out in unprecedented doses. The only rational responses of penalized taxpayers are dismay and dis- gust. Way with words score low By Theodore M. Bernstein In his book, "Strictly Edwin Newman points out lhat people in sports as well as sports reporters and commentators often say, "The team is playing good right now." That misuse of the adjeclivc good as if it were an adverb grates on him, and properly so. A team doesn'l play good; il plays well. And if you wanl lo speak well, you won'I say you are speaking good. Home-mode compound. A reccnl news article said, "The fall in Ihc slock market is approaching window-leaping levels." Your host pointed out that window-leaping derives from "leaping from (or out of) windows" and the missing preposition makes Ihe coined compound sound off-key. He also sug- gested lhat a good guide is not to make up compound nouns from phrases lhat include a preposition. (A term thai de- fies lhal guide is faafay-silfing, but lhat is a well-established exception.) Now Edward A. Nickcrson of Ihe English department of the University of Delaware suggests that a substitute for window-leaping could be autodefeneslro- tion. The word defenestration means a tossing of a person or thing out of a window and Ihe prefix auto-means self. Like il? c Word oddities. You won't be pun- ished if you use good instead of well or coin a bad compound, but you may cause pain among your listeners or readers. Nevertheless, the ideas of pain and punishment arc not far apart. The word pain comes from the Greek poine, meaning penally or punishment. More oddities. The word druthers stirs Ihc curiosity of William Voelcker of Philadelphia, who asks about its meaning and derivation. II means pref- erence or choice, as in the sentence, "If I had my druthers I'd like lo knock off early today." It's a dialectal contraction of I'd rather, probably influenced by a rural pronunciation. Nrw York Times Svndlcole ,a Theodore M. Bernstein Mideast issue slighted in breakeven summit By James Reston NEW YORK There are two contra- dictory interpretations of Ihe Ford- Brezhnev "tentative" agreement on the control of offensive nuclear weapons. The first, defined by Ihe While House press secretary, Ron Nessen, was that it was a "triumph" for arms control, and the second was that it was a delayed So- viet trap to assure Moscow of U. S. trade and modern technology. The chances are lhat il was neither. It was a sudden, vague, and surprising "breakthrough" in principle, as Secre- tary of Slate Kissinger called il and an indication thai Ihe leaders of the Soviet Union want to continue their policy of peaceful coexistence with the United States, or at least avoid a break wilh Washington in the foreseeable fulure. In political terms, this is reassuring. The Soviet leaders might have taken a more belligerent line. The Western na- tions are in serious economic and politi- cal trouble. Presidenl Ford has nol es- tablished his authority over the United Stales government, or even organized his new adminislralion. And from the Azores, through Europe and the Medi- terranean and the Middle East to Japan, the free nations are divided and disor- ganized. At least in the Ford-Brezhnev meet- ing al Vladivostok, the Soviel leaders didn't try to take advantage of the dis- array of the Wesl, but supported the policy of detenle with the United Stales, agreed on a long-lerm control of the numbers of nuclear weapons, avoided argumenls over Europe and Japan, and gave at least tentative approval to peace and national independence to all nations in the Middle East, including Israel. The Vladivostok communique on the Middle East was extremely vague. Both sides agree thai the silualion Ihere is extremely dangerous, but both keep pouring arms into Israel and the Arab stales thai can hit both Cairo and Je- rusalem. Washington and Moscow lalk aboul but the cold war goes on. The Ford-Brezhnev meeting was merely a holding operation, and until Ihe facts of their agreement are published, it will nol really be clear what they decided. Meanwhile il is clear lhat the Soviel leaders are being very careful. They have apparenlly concluded lhal a major disruplion of Ihe detenle policy would probably produce a violenl anlicommun- isl reaclion in the United States, and maybe a Jackson presidency, or even a Reagan-Wallace campaign in In any event, and for whatever rea- sons, the Soviets have agreed to a ceil- ing on all main strategic weapons sys- tems, equal to the United States. They have dropped their claim (hat all American forward-based planes in Europe and Japan should be counted in Ihe slralegic balance, and concentrated on a Moscow-Washington compromise in which they will gel trade and technology in return for arms control. The arms control, however, will still leave both sides wilh enough weapons to blow up the world. The main thing, in the Immediate future, is whal Ihe Via- divoslok communique said aboul Ihe Middle East. It was extremely vague. Ford and Brezhnev merely "reaf- firmed Iheir intention to make every effort lo promote a solution of Ihe key issues of a jusl and lasling peace in that area on Ihc basis of Ihe United Nations resolution 338, with due account taken of the legitimate inlcresls of all peoples of Ihe area including Ihe Palestinian peo- ple and respect for the rights of all the states of the area lo indepcndenl exist- ence." But this did nol deal with, but mere- ly evaded, the central issue. Furd and Brezhnev did not really apply their no- ble principles lo the Middle East. They are both shipping modern weapons inlo Ihe area. More important, they are now sending weapons lhal can destroy both stales if a fifth Israeli-Arab war begins, and they are not using (heir influence or keeping Iheir promises to avoid lhat war. These are the brutal facts of the situ- ation, and on Ihe big issue of the Middle East, the Vladivostok meeting was no triumph. It kept the balance of nuclear power about where il was. U agreed to People's forum Right-denial To the Krlilor: St. Luke's hospital requires a com- mittee of doctors lo approve before a surgical sterilization can be done there. The patient's form requesting the opera- lion also slalcs: "In the case of steriliza- lion for socio-economic reasons, sterili- zation will be contingent on the birth of a live baby." At Ihis moment, when millions of children are starving, it is inexcusable lhal a committee must rule on a cou- ple's desire nol lo bring another baby inlo an overcrowded world. The hospital policy also condemns a woman whose ,-igc or whose number of children doesn't meet committee stan- dards to use ineffective, Inconvenient or Insights War makes rattling good history; but peace is poor reading. Thomas Hardy maintain that balance for the next ten years, which is helpful, but on the im- mediate crisis of the Middle-East, it did nol use the power of Washington and Moscow to avoid another war. It is probably wrong to assume that Brezhnev was selling a Irap for Ford, agreeing lo a nuclear compromise in principle, merely lo get trade and technology agreements through the congress, but Brezhnev did not really deal with the major crisis in the Middle East. And this is whal really worries Washington and Ihe other capitals of the world. James Reston Catbird perch gives Moscow key choices By C. L. Sulzberger PARIS There has been much pub- lic lalk about a pentagonal world found- ed upon relationships between the Unit- ed Slates. Russia, China, Japan and Western Europe and there has also been talk (now less often heard) aboul a Iri- angular world based on a balance between the first three. Bui the quintessential policy devised by President Nixon wilh Henry Kis- singer's aid and now, it would seem, embraced by President Ford, still rests on Ihe superpower balance between the U.S.A. and Ihe U.S.S.R. One principal faclor contributing to Washington's original shift in atliludes toward Peking was the desire lo ap- proach Moscow through the back door. Nixon and Kissinger realized the Amer- ican diplomatic posture would seem flabby to the Kremlin so long as Wash- ington had no contact al all with the largest nation on earth because the U.S. insisted on the ridiculous pretense lhat Taiwan, an offshore island, represented 800 million Chinese. It was as if some loony capital in 1814 claimed Ihe exiled Napleon's domain of Elba spoke for "France." To approach Mao Tse-lung, Nixon used the Romanian leader, Ceausescu, to herald what was coming and then senl Kissinger on a secret trip to Peking via Pakistan. Indeed, so eager was Ibc American administration to curry Chinese favor lhal Us policy deliberately "tilted" against India, China's adver- sary. As Kissinger himself expressed it. the Peking and Moscow summits follow- ing the U.S. policy swilch differed ac- cordingly: Nixon's China trip marked a bifurcation in the road, an event that could lead to major changes by Peking. But it left much for Ihe fulure, and one could not judge its accomplishments. The Moscow summit sought agreements lhat would be justifying in themselves. Now, afler Ihe Ford-Brezhnev Vla- divoslok meeting, both Ihc American and Soviel sides stress thai break- through has come. Should this prove true, il would mark an enormous step. But it will lake months before we know the answer. potentially harmful alternate forms of contraception. Agreement of the woman and her doctor is all that should be required for surgical sterilization. Anything else is a denial of individual rights and is moral- ly irresponsible in a world where the human race is "multiplying" itself to death. Sharon Hannen Route I, Center Point Unfair to guns To Ihe Editor: With Ihe Nov. 13 showing of "The ABC continues its policy, pre- viously established wilh the ABC-pro- duced movies "Savages" and "Scream of Ihe of presenting programs The historian looks back- ward. In the end he also believes backward. Frederick Niefzche In the meantime Kissinger has bounced over to China again to explain his ideas and presumably, among other things, to stress that the United States had nothing to do with selecting Vla- divostok as a site for city whose governance by Moscow is not yet wholly endorsed by Peking. The Chinese are less than enthusias- tic with their designated role as U.S. stepping stone to Russia. They have cooled their never oven-like warmth to- ward Washington and are disappointed with their old friend Kissinger. Trade with America hasn't reached promised levels. There is irritation with U.S. al- titudes on Cambodia. Moreover, Peking makes plain it still admires Nixon more than Ford. Chou En-lai, commenting to me on Watergate a year ago, said: "You have had such things occur in your society and un- doubtedly will again." While one may expect a good deal of optimistic lacquer to decorate Kissin- ger's latest Peking pictorial. China has .signaled, since he was last there, that it too understands power politics. The Chinese have not only done exceedingly well in the third world of underdevel- oped nations but they recently winked at Moscow quite coyly. On Nov. fi. Peking sent the Soviet Un- ion a message once more urging "normalization" of relations as "re- sponding to the fundamental interests of the two peoples" and pledging itself to work for preservation of "revolutionary amity." This left Brezhnev in control of the ball. He could have played with Peking if he had wanted, although his trusted Outer Mongolian satellite, Premier Tsedenbal, complained publicly that Pe- king was pursuing "great-power, chauvinistic" policies at Soviet expense. Brezhnev has followed this hint by per- sonally smacking China down. Now he can coddle U.S. fancies and still cater to our instincts and budgetary pinch; or get tough in the Middle East. Whatever happens, Moscow has a key position, similar to that once claimed by Washington. It can swing either way. C. L. Sulzberger Russia has reached a military ascendan- cy which enables it to negotiate from strength as it used to complain we did. The critical test will be on Israel. Kissinger made the mistake of trying to squeeze the U.S.S.R. out of the game of arranging an Arab-Israeli solution but. after a period of apparent success, he has seemingly lost that attempt. The Kremlin can now permit a new conflict to explode in the Palestine area and is busily sending the Arabs even more arms than the U.S. is sending Israel. Or Moscow can limit such a conflict, after it has been ignited. Finally, Russia can force Washington to admit the U.S.S.R. has a cardinal role in peace negotiations. We will know the answer on this long, long before we know whether the promised nuclear anus limitation means much in checking the race In holocaust. which are biased against the private ownership and use of firearms. This film cannot be considered an objective, dispassionate or fair ap- praisal of the role of firearms in our society. From beginning to end negative connotations are attached to the revolv- er which is the subject of the movie. The original owner's wife doesn't want the gun in the house. The security guard reveals his wife feels similarly. A psycho threatens to kill people with it. The gun is almost used for suicide. It is used in a robbery. Finally, in a shock ending designed to reinforce iho at- mosphere of fear and loathing of guns fostered by the earlier episodes, a small boy accidentally kills himself with the gun. Defense and informal target practice were ihn only legitimate reasons given for firearms possession and were barely mentioned. What is history bat a fable agreed upon? Napoleon Bonaparte New SALT no miracle, but Schlesinger buys it By Rowland Evans and Robert Novak WASHINGTON Although the new SALT agreement with Moscow is noth- ing like the miraculous breakthrough painted by President Ford and Press Secretary Ron Nessen, it is satisfactory and safe enough to get a private bless- ing from a sober critic: Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger. Summoned to the White House last Monday evening for his first full-scale briefing from Mr. Ford on the Vladi- vostok pact, Schlesinger did not really know what to expect. Afterward, he told Pentagon colleagues with visible relief that he was "quite pleased." Schiesinger's restrained pleasure is far more important than Ncssen's trans- parent attempts to induce euphoria and pump up a sagging Ford presidency. What's more, his caution more closely reflects the starkly realistic, noneu- phoric underpinning for the new strate- gic arms limitation (SALT) agreement: Soviet desire to take advantage of West- ern political weakness mixed with fear of inherent Western technological supe- riority; U. S. fear that the heavily Dem- ocratic congress will not approve suffi- cient funds to unleash that technology. Schiesinger's initial reaction, assur- ing Pentagon acceptance of the new agreement, is significant considering his backstage disagreements with Sec- retary of Slate Henry Kissinger the past 18 monlhs over how to lame runaway Soviel developments of arms. What's more, he was not fully in- formed on specific details of the prog- ress made by Kissinger in Moscow earlier this year. When an aide to Sen. Henry M. Jackson contacted Schlesinger Sunday night for his reaclion lo Vladi- vostok, he replied glumly that he knew nothing about it. Schlesinger has always been against piecemeal arms agreements, partly on grounds thai the Russians would exploit the exempted areas. Kissinger, worried over spending limits imposed by a nca- isolationist congress, has pushed hard for almost any agreement with Moscow. His thesis: Partial agreements keep the door open. The aspect of the Vladivostok pact adopting the theory of "equal aggre- gates" equality in the number of missile launchers anil bombers is viewed by one lop Pentagon strategist as "an extraordinary breakthrough." Equally significant was Ihc apparent So- viel agreement, after years of intran- sigence, lo exempt NATO airfields in Central Europe. Publishers-Han Syndicate Isn't it the truth? By Carl Riblel, jr. Exists there a man who never has asked: "What's the matter with women thai they do not understand If there is such a man, he musl lie one who answered his question with: "The trouble with women is the same as Ihe trouble with men the opposile sex." "Whof o woman admires in a man is distinction among men. What a man admires in a woman is devo- tion fo himself." Bieree IntcrOceon Press Syndicate The producers have claimed that "The Gun" is an unbiased film which depicls the history of one handgun. However, they cannot claim "The Gun" represents the typical history of a handgun. The story line of "The dun" was composed by stringing together a number of irue hut uncommon inci- dents, Involving many different hand- guns, inlo a story of one handgun. A film portrayal of Ihe life of a lypi- cal handgun would be very umlrumatic because fewer Ihan 1 percent of private- ly owned handguns are Involved in murders, suicides, robberies or acci- dents. But ABC has chosen to sacrifice the truth for an anil-gun message. Hopefully, KCRG will have the fairness and courage lo refuse lo show anymore films wilh such an Inherent bias on a complex anil controversial issue. Donald Bnhlkcn Monlieollo
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